Southend vs Berkhamsted: model vs market
| Source | Southend | Draw | Berkhamsted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Edge | -31% | +7% | +24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Southend vs Berkhamsted odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Southend, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 1.28 | 1.28 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.00 |
| Berkhamsted | 7.55 | 7.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Southend and Berkhamsted expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Southend / Berkhamsted)
- 1.09 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Southend / Berkhamsted)
- 0.96 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Southend vs Berkhamsted score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Southend goals. Columns: Berkhamsted goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Southend vs Berkhamsted goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Southend vs Berkhamsted
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southend | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.25 | |
| Berkhamsted | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Southend or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Berkhamsted) | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Southend win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Southend and Berkhamsted recent form
Southend
2W 0D 2L
Berkhamsted
4W 0D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Berkhamsted away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Southend at home only, Berkhamsted away only.
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Bury vs Harrogate Town 2026-10-17
- Hartlepool v Marine — match page 2026-10-17
- Carlisle vs Tamworth — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads 2026-10-17
- Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva — match page 2026-10-17
- Barrow vs Gloucester City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town 2026-10-17
- Gateshead v Stafford Rangers — match page 2026-10-17