Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe

· Hayden Road, Rushden

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Morecambe to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AFC Rushden & DiamondsDrawMorecambe

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAFC Rushden & DiamondsDrawMorecambe
Model45%29%26%
Market22%23%55%
Published27%25%48%
Edge+23%+6%-29%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Morecambe, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.65Now 1.65 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AFC Rushden & Diamonds4.204.20+0.00
Draw3.883.88+0.00
Morecambe1.651.65+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41AFC Rushden & Diamonds
1.02Morecambe
Total expected goals
2.43
Attack rating (AFC Rushden & Diamonds / Morecambe)
0.98 / 0.90
Defence rating (AFC Rushden & Diamonds / Morecambe)
0.76 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 7.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 1 11.1% 13.9% 6.5% 2.2% 0.7% 2 8.7% 8.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3 4.1% 4.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: AFC Rushden & Diamonds goals. Columns: Morecambe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AFC Rushden & Diamonds27%3.65
Draw25%4.01
Morecambe48%2.10
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.28
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (AFC Rushden & Diamonds or draw)52%1.91
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Morecambe)73%1.38
Handicap -1Morecambe win by 2+10%9.92
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe recent form

AFC Rushden & Diamonds 3W 1D 2L
Morecambe 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AFC Rushden & Diamonds at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Rushden & Diamonds at home only, Morecambe away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures