Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Altrincham vs United of Manchester

· Moss Lane, Altrincham

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Altrincham to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AltrinchamDrawUnited of Manchester

Altrincham vs United of Manchester: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAltrinchamDrawUnited of Manchester
Model26%24%50%
Market68%19%13%
Published57%20%22%
Edge-41%+5%+37%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Altrincham vs United of Manchester odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Altrincham, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.33Now 1.33 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Altrincham1.331.33+0.00
Draw4.704.70+0.00
United of Manchester6.876.87+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Altrincham and United of Manchester expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Altrincham
1.96United of Manchester
Total expected goals
3.35
Attack rating (Altrincham / United of Manchester)
1.05 / 1.43
Defence rating (Altrincham / United of Manchester)
0.92 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Altrincham vs United of Manchester score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 5.9% 6.7% 4.4% 3.4% 1 3.9% 10.5% 9.4% 6.1% 4.7% 2 3.4% 6.6% 6.5% 4.2% 3.3% 3 1.6% 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 4+ 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7%

Rows: Altrincham goals. Columns: United of Manchester goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Altrincham vs United of Manchester goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Altrincham vs United of Manchester

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Altrincham57%1.75
Draw20%4.91
United of Manchester22%4.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.54
Under 2.535%2.86
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.89
Double chance1X (Altrincham or draw)78%1.29
12 (either side)80%1.26
X2 (draw or United of Manchester)43%2.34
Handicap -1Altrincham win by 2+12%8.39
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Altrincham and United of Manchester recent form

Altrincham 1W 3D 1L
United of Manchester 4W 0D 2L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

United of Manchester away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Altrincham at home only, United of Manchester away only.

Altrincham vs United of Manchester head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Altrincham 0 · draws 0 · United of Manchester 2.

AltrinchamDrawsUnited of Manchester
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-07-11United of Manchester4-1AltrinchamFriendlies Clubs
2011-11-27United of Manchester2-1AltrinchamFA Trophy

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures