Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Bedford Town vs Cray Wanderers

· The New Eyrie, Cardington

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Bedford Town to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bedford TownDrawCray Wanderers

Bedford Town vs Cray Wanderers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBedford TownDrawCray Wanderers
Model23%29%47%
Market52%24%24%
Published45%25%30%
Edge-28%+5%+23%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bedford Town vs Cray Wanderers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bedford Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.75Now 1.75 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bedford Town1.751.75+0.00
Draw3.723.72+0.00
Cray Wanderers3.763.76+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bedford Town and Cray Wanderers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.95Bedford Town
1.45Cray Wanderers
Total expected goals
2.41
Attack rating (Bedford Town / Cray Wanderers)
0.93 / 1.07
Defence rating (Bedford Town / Cray Wanderers)
0.91 / 0.56

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bedford Town vs Cray Wanderers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 11.8% 9.5% 4.6% 2.3% 1 7.3% 13.7% 9.1% 4.4% 2.2% 2 4.1% 6.0% 4.3% 2.1% 1.1% 3 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Bedford Town goals. Columns: Cray Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bedford Town vs Cray Wanderers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bedford Town vs Cray Wanderers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bedford Town45%2.24
Draw25%3.93
Cray Wanderers30%3.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.31
Under 2.557%1.76
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.07
No52%1.94
Double chance1X (Bedford Town or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Cray Wanderers)55%1.81
Handicap -1Bedford Town win by 2+9%11.55
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bedford Town and Cray Wanderers recent form

Bedford Town 2W 2D 2L
Cray Wanderers 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bedford Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Cray Wanderers away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bedford Town at home only, Cray Wanderers away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

Before and after this match