Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Boreham Wood vs Woking

· Meadow Park, Borehamwood

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Boreham Wood to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Boreham WoodDrawWoking

Boreham Wood vs Woking: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoreham WoodDrawWoking
Model70%18%13%
Market63%22%15%
Published65%21%15%
Edge+6%-4%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Boreham Wood below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Boreham Wood vs Woking odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Boreham Wood, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.42Now 1.42 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Boreham Wood1.421.42+0.00
Draw4.154.15+0.00
Woking5.955.95+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Boreham Wood and Woking expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.66Boreham Wood
1.11Woking
Total expected goals
3.77
Attack rating (Boreham Wood / Woking)
1.21 / 0.90
Defence rating (Boreham Wood / Woking)
0.83 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Boreham Wood vs Woking score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1 5.5% 7.5% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 2 8.2% 9.1% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 7.2% 8.0% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 9.1% 10.1% 5.6% 2.1% 0.7%

Rows: Boreham Wood goals. Columns: Woking goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Boreham Wood vs Woking goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 73%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Boreham Wood vs Woking

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Boreham Wood65%1.54
Draw21%4.85
Woking15%6.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.38
Under 2.527%3.65
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.71
Double chance1X (Boreham Wood or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Woking)35%2.84
Handicap -1Boreham Wood win by 2+49%2.03
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Boreham Wood and Woking recent form

Boreham Wood 4W 1D 1L
Woking 1W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Boreham Wood vs Woking head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Boreham Wood 5 · draws 3 · Woking 2.

Boreham WoodDrawsWoking
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-10Woking2-2Boreham WoodNational League
2025-09-27Boreham Wood1-0WokingNational League
2024-02-03Woking0-1Boreham WoodNational League
2023-11-25Boreham Wood4-2WokingNational League
2023-02-11Woking2-2Boreham WoodNational League
2022-11-12Boreham Wood0-1WokingNational League
2022-04-02Boreham Wood0-1WokingNational League
2021-12-11Woking0-2Boreham WoodNational League
2021-03-09Woking0-0Boreham WoodNational League
2020-10-27Boreham Wood1-0WokingNational League

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures