Boreham Wood vs Woking: model vs market
| Source | Boreham Wood | Draw | Woking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Published | 65% | 21% | 15% |
| Edge | +6% | -4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Boreham Wood below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Boreham Wood vs Woking odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Boreham Wood, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 1.42 | 1.42 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.00 |
| Woking | 5.95 | 5.95 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Boreham Wood and Woking expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.77
- Attack rating (Boreham Wood / Woking)
- 1.21 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Boreham Wood / Woking)
- 0.83 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Boreham Wood vs Woking score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Boreham Wood goals. Columns: Woking goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Boreham Wood vs Woking goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Boreham Wood vs Woking
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boreham Wood | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Woking | 15% | 6.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Boreham Wood or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Woking) | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Boreham Wood win by 2+ | 49% | 2.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Boreham Wood and Woking recent form
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Boreham Wood vs Woking head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Boreham Wood 5 · draws 3 · Woking 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Woking | 2-2 | Boreham Wood | National League |
| 2025-09-27 | Boreham Wood | 1-0 | Woking | National League |
| 2024-02-03 | Woking | 0-1 | Boreham Wood | National League |
| 2023-11-25 | Boreham Wood | 4-2 | Woking | National League |
| 2023-02-11 | Woking | 2-2 | Boreham Wood | National League |
| 2022-11-12 | Boreham Wood | 0-1 | Woking | National League |
| 2022-04-02 | Boreham Wood | 0-1 | Woking | National League |
| 2021-12-11 | Woking | 0-2 | Boreham Wood | National League |
| 2021-03-09 | Woking | 0-0 | Boreham Wood | National League |
| 2020-10-27 | Boreham Wood | 1-0 | Woking | National League |
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