Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Boston United vs Scunthorpe

· Boston Community Stadium, Boston

Full time1 – 3

Alin prediction was Scunthorpe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Boston UnitedDrawScunthorpe

Boston United vs Scunthorpe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoston UnitedDrawScunthorpe
Model22%23%55%
Market41%26%33%
Published36%25%38%
Edge-19%-3%+23%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Scunthorpe below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Boston United vs Scunthorpe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Scunthorpe, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 2.74Now 2.74 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Boston United2.182.18+0.00
Draw3.443.44+0.00
Scunthorpe2.742.74+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Boston United and Scunthorpe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Boston United
2.11Scunthorpe
Total expected goals
3.39
Attack rating (Boston United / Scunthorpe)
0.87 / 1.09
Defence rating (Boston United / Scunthorpe)
1.31 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Boston United vs Scunthorpe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 6.2% 7.5% 5.2% 4.5% 1 3.4% 10.0% 9.6% 6.7% 5.8% 2 2.8% 5.9% 6.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.6% 4+ 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7%

Rows: Boston United goals. Columns: Scunthorpe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Boston United vs Scunthorpe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Boston United vs Scunthorpe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Boston United36%2.75
Draw25%3.96
Scunthorpe38%2.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.93
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.81
Double chance1X (Boston United or draw)62%1.62
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Scunthorpe)64%1.57
Handicap -1Scunthorpe win by 2+34%2.93
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Boston United and Scunthorpe recent form

Boston United 1W 2D 2L
Scunthorpe 2W 1D 2L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Boston United vs Scunthorpe head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Boston United 1 · draws 2 · Scunthorpe 0.

Boston UnitedDrawsScunthorpe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Scunthorpe3-6Boston UnitedNational League
2025-10-18Boston United1-1ScunthorpeNational League
2024-04-27Scunthorpe0-0Boston UnitedNational League - North - Play-offs

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures