Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Chesham United vs Forest Green

· The Meadow, Chesham

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Forest Green to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Chesham UnitedDrawForest Green

Chesham United vs Forest Green: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChesham UnitedDrawForest Green
Model51%19%30%
Market23%24%53%
Published30%22%47%
Edge+28%-4%-23%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chesham United vs Forest Green odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Forest Green, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.71Now 1.71 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chesham United3.873.87+0.00
Draw3.843.84+0.00
Forest Green1.711.71+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chesham United and Forest Green expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.65Chesham United
2.05Forest Green
Total expected goals
4.70
Attack rating (Chesham United / Forest Green)
1.37 / 1.25
Defence rating (Chesham United / Forest Green)
1.10 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chesham United vs Forest Green score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.4% 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1 1.9% 5.4% 5.1% 3.5% 2.8% 2 3.2% 6.5% 6.7% 4.6% 3.8% 3 2.8% 5.8% 5.9% 4.1% 3.3% 4+ 3.5% 7.3% 7.4% 5.1% 4.2%

Rows: Chesham United goals. Columns: Forest Green goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chesham United vs Forest Green goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 85%
Over 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
81%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chesham United vs Forest Green

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chesham United30%3.30
Draw22%4.45
Forest Green47%2.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585%1.18
Under 2.515%6.58
Both teams to scoreYes81%1.23
No19%5.40
Double chance1X (Chesham United or draw)53%1.89
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Forest Green)70%1.43
Handicap -1Forest Green win by 2+16%6.28
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chesham United and Forest Green recent form

Chesham United 4W 0D 2L
Forest Green 2W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chesham United at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
5.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Chesham United at home only, Forest Green away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures