Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Chorley vs Worcester City

· The Chorley Group Victory Park Stadium, Chorley

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Chorley to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChorleyDrawWorcester City

Chorley vs Worcester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChorleyDrawWorcester City
Model42%29%29%
Market59%23%18%
Published54%25%21%
Edge-16%+6%+11%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chorley vs Worcester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chorley, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.54Now 1.54 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chorley1.541.54+0.00
Draw3.863.86+0.00
Worcester City4.974.97+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chorley and Worcester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Chorley
1.13Worcester City
Total expected goals
2.54
Attack rating (Chorley / Worcester City)
1.03 / 0.95
Defence rating (Chorley / Worcester City)
0.80 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chorley vs Worcester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 7.6% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 1 9.9% 13.8% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.9% 8.9% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.7% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Chorley goals. Columns: Worcester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chorley vs Worcester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chorley vs Worcester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chorley54%1.84
Draw25%4.04
Worcester City21%4.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.14
Under 2.553%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.10
Double chance1X (Chorley or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Worcester City)46%2.20
Handicap -1Chorley win by 2+21%4.79
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chorley and Worcester City recent form

Chorley 4W 0D 2L
Worcester City 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Worcester City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Chorley at home only, Worcester City away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures