Dover vs Dorking Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Dover | Draw | Dorking Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 21% | 43% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | +7% | -4% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Dover vs Dorking Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dorking Wanderers, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dover | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Dorking Wanderers | 2.01 | 2.01 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dover and Dorking Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.42
- Attack rating (Dover / Dorking Wanderers)
- 1.07 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Dover / Dorking Wanderers)
- 1.10 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dover vs Dorking Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dover goals. Columns: Dorking Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dover vs Dorking Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dover vs Dorking Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dover | 32% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Dorking Wanderers | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dover or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Dorking Wanderers) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dorking Wanderers win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dover and Dorking Wanderers recent form
Dover
2W 1D 2L
Dorking Wanderers
3W 2D 1L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dover at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Dorking Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Dover at home only, Dorking Wanderers away only.
Dover vs Dorking Wanderers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Dover 0 · draws 2 · Dorking Wanderers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Dover | 1-1 | Dorking Wanderers | National League - South |
| 2026-02-10 | Dorking Wanderers | 2-0 | Dover | National League - South |
| 2025-10-21 | Dover | 2-2 | Dorking Wanderers | National League - South |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Bury vs Harrogate Town 2026-10-17
- Southend vs Berkhamsted — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Hartlepool v Marine — match page 2026-10-17
- Carlisle vs Tamworth — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads 2026-10-17
- Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva — match page 2026-10-17
- Barrow vs Gloucester City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town 2026-10-17