Dover vs Wealdstone Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Dover vs Wealdstone preview

Dover faces Wealdstone with a 37% chance of a home win, while Wealdstone has a 39% chance to win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams show strong attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.75 for Dover and 1.82 for Wealdstone.

The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 70%. However, recent form shows Dover with three wins in their last six matches, while Wealdstone has four wins in their last six. This recent performance could impact the outcome, making the predictions less reliable.

Dover vs Wealdstone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Dover	Draw	Wealdstone
Model	37%	24%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	24%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Dover and Wealdstone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Dover

1.82Wealdstone

Total expected goals: 3.57
Attack rating (Dover / Wealdstone): 1.16 / 1.11
Defence rating (Dover / Wealdstone): 1.11 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dover vs Wealdstone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1 4.0% 9.8% 8.1% 4.9% 3.4% 2 4.3% 7.8% 7.1% 4.3% 3.0% 3 2.5% 4.6% 4.2% 2.5% 1.7% 4+ 1.6% 3.0% 2.7% 1.7% 1.1%

Rows: Dover goals. Columns: Wealdstone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dover vs Wealdstone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 69%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 70%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dover vs Wealdstone

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Dover	37%	2.72
	Draw	24%	4.20
	Wealdstone	39%	2.53
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69%	1.44
	Under 2.5	31%	3.26
Both teams to score	Yes	70%	1.42
	No	30%	3.36
Double chance	1X (Dover or draw)	61%	1.65
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Wealdstone)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Wealdstone win by 2+	21%	4.67
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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