Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

FC Halifax Town vs South Shields

· The Shay, Halifax

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was South Shields to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Halifax TownDrawSouth Shields

FC Halifax Town vs South Shields: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Halifax TownDrawSouth Shields
Model21%20%59%
Market43%25%32%
Published37%24%39%
Edge-21%-6%+27%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices South Shields below the model: +27.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Halifax Town vs South Shields odds movement

Median bookmaker price on South Shields, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 2.80Now 2.80 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Halifax Town2.102.10+0.00
Draw3.523.52+0.00
South Shields2.802.80+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Halifax Town and South Shields expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51FC Halifax Town
2.53South Shields
Total expected goals
4.04
Attack rating (FC Halifax Town / South Shields)
0.99 / 1.49
Defence rating (FC Halifax Town / South Shields)
1.14 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Halifax Town vs South Shields score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 3.8% 5.6% 4.7% 5.5% 1 2.0% 7.4% 8.5% 7.2% 8.3% 2 2.0% 5.1% 6.4% 5.4% 6.3% 3 1.0% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7%

Rows: FC Halifax Town goals. Columns: South Shields goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Halifax Town vs South Shields goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Halifax Town vs South Shields

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Halifax Town37%2.68
Draw24%4.17
South Shields39%2.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.30
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.38
No28%3.63
Double chance1X (FC Halifax Town or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or South Shields)63%1.59
Handicap -1South Shields win by 2+39%2.55
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Halifax Town and South Shields recent form

FC Halifax Town 1W 0D 2L
South Shields 5W 0D 1L

Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

South Shields away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Halifax Town at home only, South Shields away only.

FC Halifax Town vs South Shields head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: FC Halifax Town 0 · draws 0 · South Shields 1.

FC Halifax TownDrawsSouth Shields
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-10-24South Shields2-0FC Halifax TownFA Cup

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures