Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd preview

Guiseley AFC faces Sutton Utd with 62% probability for a Guiseley win and a predicted scoreline of 2-0 at 11%. Guiseley has shown solid form recently, with 4 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches. Sutton Utd's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses, which may impact their performance.

The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 53%. However, Sutton's lower expected goals of 0.92 compared to Guiseley’s 2.04 could lead to a different outcome if they manage to improve their attacking efficiency.

Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Guiseley AFC	Draw	Sutton Utd
Model	62%	23%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	62%	23%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.92.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Guiseley AFC and Sutton Utd expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Guiseley AFC

0.92Sutton Utd

Total expected goals: 2.96
Attack rating (Guiseley AFC / Sutton Utd): 1.25 / 1.05
Defence rating (Guiseley AFC / Sutton Utd): 0.60 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 3.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1 9.6% 10.7% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.8% 9.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 3 7.3% 6.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 5.9% 5.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Guiseley AFC goals. Columns: Sutton Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 53%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Guiseley AFC	62%	1.61
	Draw	23%	4.44
	Sutton Utd	15%	6.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.76
	Under 2.5	43%	2.31
Both teams to score	Yes	53%	1.87
	No	47%	2.14
Double chance	1X (Guiseley AFC or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	77%	1.29
	X2 (draw or Sutton Utd)	38%	2.65
Handicap -1	Guiseley AFC win by 2+	39%	2.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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