Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Harborough Town to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Harborough TownDrawSpennymoor Town

Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHarborough TownDrawSpennymoor Town
Model30%27%43%
Market54%24%21%
Published48%25%27%
Edge-24%+3%+21%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Harborough Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.67Now 1.67 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Harborough Town1.671.67+0.00
Draw3.763.76+0.00
Spennymoor Town4.244.24+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Harborough Town and Spennymoor Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Harborough Town
1.56Spennymoor Town
Total expected goals
2.84
Attack rating (Harborough Town / Spennymoor Town)
1.21 / 1.16
Defence rating (Harborough Town / Spennymoor Town)
0.90 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 8.0% 7.1% 3.7% 2.0% 1 6.3% 12.9% 9.1% 4.7% 2.6% 2 4.8% 7.5% 5.8% 3.0% 1.7% 3 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.7% 4+ 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Harborough Town goals. Columns: Spennymoor Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Harborough Town vs Spennymoor Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Harborough Town48%2.07
Draw25%4.02
Spennymoor Town27%3.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.85
Under 2.546%2.17
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Harborough Town or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Spennymoor Town)52%1.94
Handicap -1Harborough Town win by 2+13%7.42
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Harborough Town and Spennymoor Town recent form

Harborough Town 4W 1D 1L
Spennymoor Town 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Harborough Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Spennymoor Town away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Harborough Town at home only, Spennymoor Town away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures