Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde preview

In the FA Cup fixture between Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde, the 1X2 probabilities show Harrogate Town at 41% to win, while AFC Fylde is at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.76 for Harrogate Town and 1.58 for AFC Fylde, indicating a close match.

Both teams to score has a 67% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 65%. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting potential uncertainty in the outcome. Recent form shows Harrogate Town with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-W-L, while AFC Fylde has W-L-D-W-L. These factors could influence the final result.

Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Harrogate Town	Draw	AFC Fylde
Model	41%	25%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	25%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Harrogate Town and AFC Fylde expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Harrogate Town

1.58AFC Fylde

Total expected goals: 3.34
Attack rating (Harrogate Town / AFC Fylde): 0.91 / 1.32
Defence rating (Harrogate Town / AFC Fylde): 0.81 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1 5.2% 10.8% 7.8% 4.1% 2.3% 2 5.5% 8.7% 6.9% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.1% 1.2% 4+ 2.1% 3.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.8%

Rows: Harrogate Town goals. Columns: AFC Fylde goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Harrogate Town	41%	2.42
	Draw	25%	4.04
	AFC Fylde	34%	2.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.54
	Under 2.5	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	3.01
Double chance	1X (Harrogate Town or draw)	66%	1.51
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or AFC Fylde)	59%	1.71
Handicap -1	Harrogate Town win by 2+	22%	4.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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