Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors: model vs market
| Source | Kidderminster Harriers | Draw | Solihull Moors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | -12% | +4% | +8% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kidderminster Harriers, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster Harriers | 1.69 | 1.69 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.68 | +0.00 |
| Solihull Moors | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kidderminster Harriers and Solihull Moors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (Kidderminster Harriers / Solihull Moors)
- 0.85 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Kidderminster Harriers / Solihull Moors)
- 0.89 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kidderminster Harriers goals. Columns: Solihull Moors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kidderminster Harriers | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Solihull Moors | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kidderminster Harriers or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Solihull Moors) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kidderminster Harriers win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kidderminster Harriers and Solihull Moors recent form
Kidderminster Harriers
2W 1D 2L
Solihull Moors
1W 2D 2L
Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Kidderminster Harriers vs Solihull Moors head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Kidderminster Harriers 1 · draws 0 · Solihull Moors 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Kidderminster Harriers | 1-2 | Solihull Moors | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-27 | Solihull Moors | 0-1 | Kidderminster Harriers | National League |
| 2023-09-16 | Kidderminster Harriers | 0-1 | Solihull Moors | National League |
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