Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Leatherhead vs Yeovil Town

· Fetcham Grove, Leatherhead

Full time3 – 3

Alin prediction was Yeovil Town to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeatherheadDrawYeovil Town

Leatherhead vs Yeovil Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeatherheadDrawYeovil Town
Model59%26%14%
Market16%21%64%
Published27%22%51%
Edge+44%+6%-50%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leatherhead vs Yeovil Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yeovil Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.41Now 1.41 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leatherhead5.755.75+0.00
Draw4.334.33+0.00
Yeovil Town1.411.41+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leatherhead and Yeovil Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Leatherhead
0.68Yeovil Town
Total expected goals
2.33
Attack rating (Leatherhead / Yeovil Town)
0.93 / 0.81
Defence rating (Leatherhead / Yeovil Town)
0.57 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leatherhead vs Yeovil Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 5.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1 14.9% 12.1% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2 13.2% 9.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 7.2% 4.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 4.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Leatherhead goals. Columns: Yeovil Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leatherhead vs Yeovil Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leatherhead vs Yeovil Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leatherhead27%3.76
Draw22%4.52
Yeovil Town51%1.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.43
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.43
No59%1.70
Double chance1X (Leatherhead or draw)49%2.05
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Yeovil Town)73%1.36
Handicap -1Yeovil Town win by 2+4%24.56
Push (exactly one goal)10%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leatherhead and Yeovil Town recent form

Leatherhead 4W 1D 1L
Yeovil Town 0W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leatherhead at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Leatherhead at home only, Yeovil Town away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures