Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Leiston vs Guiseley AFC

· Victory Road, Reston

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Guiseley AFC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeistonDrawGuiseley AFC

Leiston vs Guiseley AFC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeistonDrawGuiseley AFC
Model38%27%35%
Market25%24%51%
Published28%24%47%
Edge+13%+3%-16%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leiston vs Guiseley AFC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Guiseley AFC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.79Now 1.79 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leiston3.623.62+0.00
Draw3.843.84+0.00
Guiseley AFC1.791.79+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leiston and Guiseley AFC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Leiston
1.47Guiseley AFC
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Leiston / Guiseley AFC)
1.29 / 1.18
Defence rating (Leiston / Guiseley AFC)
0.83 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leiston vs Guiseley AFC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 6.2% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3% 1 6.5% 12.3% 8.2% 4.0% 2.0% 2 5.8% 8.6% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3 3.0% 4.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 1.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Leiston goals. Columns: Guiseley AFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leiston vs Guiseley AFC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leiston vs Guiseley AFC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leiston28%3.52
Draw24%4.08
Guiseley AFC47%2.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.74
Under 2.542%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Leiston or draw)53%1.89
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Guiseley AFC)72%1.40
Handicap -1Guiseley AFC win by 2+17%5.79
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leiston and Guiseley AFC recent form

Leiston 4W 1D 1L
Guiseley AFC 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leiston at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Guiseley AFC away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Leiston at home only, Guiseley AFC away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures