Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Luton vs Forest Green

· Kenilworth Road, Luton

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Luton to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LutonDrawForest Green

Luton vs Forest Green: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLutonDrawForest Green
Model37%25%37%
Market71%17%12%
Published63%19%18%
Edge-9%+2%+6%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Luton vs Forest Green odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Luton, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.29Now 1.29 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Luton1.291.29+0.01
Draw5.505.45-0.05
Forest Green8.157.99-0.16

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Luton and Forest Green expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Luton
1.60Forest Green
Total expected goals
3.21
Attack rating (Luton / Forest Green)
1.07 / 1.32
Defence rating (Luton / Forest Green)
0.82 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Luton vs Forest Green score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 5.5% 5.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1 5.5% 11.5% 8.3% 4.5% 2.5% 2 5.2% 8.4% 6.7% 3.6% 2.0% 3 2.8% 4.5% 3.6% 1.9% 1.1% 4+ 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6%

Rows: Luton goals. Columns: Forest Green goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Luton vs Forest Green goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Luton vs Forest Green

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Luton63%1.59
Draw19%5.23
Forest Green18%5.56
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.64
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.84
Double chance1X (Luton or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Forest Green)37%2.70
Handicap -1Luton win by 2+19%5.25
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Luton and Forest Green recent form

Luton 4W 1D 1L
Forest Green 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Forest Green away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Luton at home only, Forest Green away only.

Expected lineups

Luton lineup

  1. 9 C. Marshall
  2. 16 Daniel Gore
  3. 6 G. Johnston
  4. 33 H. Ashby
  5. 18 J. Clark
  6. 12 J. Johnson
  7. 7 J. Richards
  8. 24 Joshua Keeley
  9. 5 M. Andersen
  10. 17 T. Mendel-Idowu

Forest Green lineup

  1. 1 E. Ross
  2. 26 Filozofe Mabete
  3. 4 J. Clarke
  4. 29 K. Abrefa
  5. 25 Kyle Kelly
  6. 20 Sean Etaluku
  7. 6 T. Campbell
  8. 24 T. Mcintyre
  9. 31 W. Grigg

Bench: T. Pemberton, N. Kengni, K. Ajayi, D. Bughail-Mellor, F. Pagel, G. Kircough, J. Osude, Oliver James Ewing

Luton vs Forest Green head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Luton 5 · draws 3 · Forest Green 1.

LutonDrawsForest Green
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-10-31Luton4-3Forest GreenEngland FA Cup
2018-04-28Luton3-1Forest GreenLeague Two
2017-12-16Forest Green0-2LutonLeague Two
2014-04-21Luton4-1Forest GreenNational League
2013-08-24Forest Green0-0LutonNational League
2013-02-09Luton1-1Forest GreenNational League
2012-10-27Forest Green1-2LutonNational League
2012-03-20Forest Green3-0LutonNational League
2011-08-16Luton1-1Forest GreenNational League

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match