Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted Prediction & Betting Tips 09/11/2026

Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted preview

Plymouth Parkway faces Berkhamsted with a 44% chance of winning compared to Berkhamsted's 32% in the 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 1.89 for Plymouth Parkway and 1.58 for Berkhamsted.

Both teams to score has a 68% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%. Despite these strong figures, the recent form shows Plymouth Parkway has won 3 of their last 6 matches, while Berkhamsted has won 5 of their last 6. This could influence the match outcome, making it less predictable.

Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Plymouth Parkway	Draw	Berkhamsted
Model	44%	24%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	44%	24%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.58.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89Plymouth Parkway

1.58Berkhamsted

Total expected goals: 3.47
Attack rating (Plymouth Parkway / Berkhamsted): 1.18 / 1.19
Defence rating (Plymouth Parkway / Berkhamsted): 0.90 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1 4.9% 10.2% 7.3% 3.9% 2.2% 2 5.5% 8.8% 6.9% 3.7% 2.1% 3 3.5% 5.5% 4.4% 2.3% 1.3% 4+ 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.9%

Rows: Plymouth Parkway goals. Columns: Berkhamsted goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Plymouth Parkway	44%	2.26
	Draw	24%	4.17
	Berkhamsted	32%	3.15
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67%	1.48
	Under 2.5	33%	3.07
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.46
	No	32%	3.17
Double chance	1X (Plymouth Parkway or draw)	68%	1.46
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Berkhamsted)	56%	1.80
Handicap -1	Plymouth Parkway win by 2+	25%	4.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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