Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town: model vs market
| Source | Plymouth Parkway | Draw | Chertsey Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | -8% | -1% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plymouth Parkway, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Parkway | 1.81 | 1.81 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.78 | +0.00 |
| Chertsey Town | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Plymouth Parkway and Chertsey Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Plymouth Parkway / Chertsey Town)
- 1.17 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Plymouth Parkway / Chertsey Town)
- 1.00 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Plymouth Parkway goals. Columns: Chertsey Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth Parkway | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Chertsey Town | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Plymouth Parkway or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Chertsey Town) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth Parkway win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Plymouth Parkway and Chertsey Town recent form
Plymouth Parkway
4W 0D 2L
Chertsey Town
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Plymouth Parkway at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Chertsey Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Plymouth Parkway at home only, Chertsey Town away only.
Plymouth Parkway vs Chertsey Town head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Plymouth Parkway 3 · draws 0 · Chertsey Town 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Plymouth Parkway | 3-1 | Chertsey Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 2025-11-29 | Chertsey Town | 1-0 | Plymouth Parkway | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 2025-02-01 | Plymouth Parkway | 2-1 | Chertsey Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 2024-10-19 | Chertsey Town | 1-2 | Plymouth Parkway | Non League Premier - Southern South |
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