Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough

· Raymond McEnhill Stadium, Salisbury

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Salisbury to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SalisburyDrawEastbourne Borough

Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSalisburyDrawEastbourne Borough
Model53%22%26%
Market63%18%19%
Published60%19%20%
Edge-10%+3%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.53.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Salisbury, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.45Now 1.45 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Salisbury1.451.45+0.00
Draw4.954.95+0.00
Eastbourne Borough4.934.93+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Salisbury and Eastbourne Borough expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Salisbury
1.53Eastbourne Borough
Total expected goals
3.76
Attack rating (Salisbury / Eastbourne Borough)
1.63 / 1.14
Defence rating (Salisbury / Eastbourne Borough)
0.91 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 1.4% 0.8% 1 4.4% 8.7% 6.1% 3.1% 1.7% 2 5.8% 8.8% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9% 3 4.3% 6.6% 5.0% 2.6% 1.4% 4+ 4.0% 6.2% 4.7% 2.4% 1.3%

Rows: Salisbury goals. Columns: Eastbourne Borough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Salisbury60%1.65
Draw19%5.18
Eastbourne Borough20%4.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.64
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.42
Double chance1X (Salisbury or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Eastbourne Borough)40%2.53
Handicap -1Salisbury win by 2+33%3.06
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Salisbury and Eastbourne Borough recent form

Salisbury 3W 1D 2L
Eastbourne Borough 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Salisbury at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Eastbourne Borough away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Salisbury at home only, Eastbourne Borough away only.

Salisbury vs Eastbourne Borough head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Salisbury 2 · draws 3 · Eastbourne Borough 1.

SalisburyDrawsEastbourne Borough
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07Salisbury2-0Eastbourne BoroughNational League - South
2025-09-20Eastbourne Borough0-0SalisburyNational League - South
2025-04-21Salisbury0-1Eastbourne BoroughNational League - South
2024-12-26Eastbourne Borough0-0SalisburyNational League - South
2020-01-07Salisbury1-0Eastbourne BoroughFA Trophy
2019-12-14Eastbourne Borough2-2SalisburyFA Trophy

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures