Salisbury vs Sholing Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Salisbury vs Sholing preview

In the FA Cup fixture between Salisbury and Sholing, the 1X2 probabilities show Salisbury at 51%, while Sholing is at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to our model.

Salisbury has an expected goals figure of 1.92, compared to Sholing's 1.30. Both teams to score stands at 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%. However, Sholing's recent form includes four wins in their last five matches, which could challenge Salisbury's slight edge. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Salisbury vs Sholing: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Salisbury	Draw	Sholing
Model	51%	24%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	24%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.30.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Salisbury and Sholing expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.92Salisbury

1.30Sholing

Total expected goals: 3.22
Attack rating (Salisbury / Sholing): 1.64 / 1.08
Defence rating (Salisbury / Sholing): 0.81 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Salisbury vs Sholing score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 4.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 1 6.7% 11.0% 6.5% 2.8% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.6% 6.2% 2.7% 1.2% 3 4.7% 6.1% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 3.5% 4.6% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6%

Rows: Salisbury goals. Columns: Sholing goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Salisbury vs Sholing goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Salisbury vs Sholing

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Salisbury	51%	1.96
	Draw	24%	4.13
	Sholing	25%	4.03
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.60
	Under 2.5	38%	2.66
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.59
	No	37%	2.71
Double chance	1X (Salisbury or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Sholing)	49%	2.04
Handicap -1	Salisbury win by 2+	30%	3.35
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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