Sholing vs SE Dons: model vs market
| Source | Sholing | Draw | SE Dons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 34% |
| Market | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 22% | 28% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +7% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sholing vs SE Dons odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sholing, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sholing | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.00 |
| SE Dons | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sholing and SE Dons expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Sholing / SE Dons)
- 1.06 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Sholing / SE Dons)
- 0.72 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sholing vs SE Dons score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sholing goals. Columns: SE Dons goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sholing vs SE Dons goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sholing vs SE Dons
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sholing | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 | |
| SE Dons | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sholing or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or SE Dons) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sholing win by 2+ | 21% | 4.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sholing and SE Dons recent form
Sholing
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sholing at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
SE Dons away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Sholing at home only, SE Dons away only.
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Bury vs Harrogate Town 2026-10-17
- Southend vs Berkhamsted — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Hartlepool v Marine — match page 2026-10-17
- Carlisle vs Tamworth — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads 2026-10-17
- Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva — match page 2026-10-17
- Barrow vs Gloucester City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town 2026-10-17