Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Spalding United vs Alvechurch

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Spalding United to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Spalding UnitedDrawAlvechurch

Spalding United vs Alvechurch: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSpalding UnitedDrawAlvechurch
Model44%28%28%
Market51%26%23%
Published49%26%24%
Edge-7%+2%+5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.18.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Spalding United vs Alvechurch odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Spalding United, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.78Now 1.78 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Spalding United1.781.78+0.00
Draw3.493.49+0.00
Alvechurch3.953.95+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Spalding United and Alvechurch expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Spalding United
1.18Alvechurch
Total expected goals
2.70
Attack rating (Spalding United / Alvechurch)
1.01 / 1.22
Defence rating (Spalding United / Alvechurch)
0.65 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Spalding United vs Alvechurch score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 6.7% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 1 9.0% 13.2% 7.1% 2.8% 1.1% 2 7.8% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 4.0% 4.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Spalding United goals. Columns: Alvechurch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Spalding United vs Alvechurch goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Spalding United vs Alvechurch

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Spalding United49%2.03
Draw26%3.78
Alvechurch24%4.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.97
Under 2.549%2.03
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (Spalding United or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Alvechurch)51%1.97
Handicap -1Spalding United win by 2+23%4.39
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Spalding United and Alvechurch recent form

Spalding United 4W 1D 1L
Alvechurch 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Spalding United at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Alvechurch away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Spalding United at home only, Alvechurch away only.

Spalding United vs Alvechurch head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Spalding United 3 · draws 1 · Alvechurch 1.

Spalding UnitedDrawsAlvechurch
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Spalding United3-0AlvechurchNon League Premier - Southern Central
2025-11-01Alvechurch0-2Spalding UnitedNon League Premier - Southern Central
2025-04-12Spalding United0-0AlvechurchNon League Premier - Southern Central
2024-12-14Alvechurch0-1Spalding UnitedNon League Premier - Southern Central
2024-10-05Spalding United1-2AlvechurchFA Trophy

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

Before and after this match