Sutton Utd vs Truro City: model vs market
| Source | Sutton Utd | Draw | Truro City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | -14% | 0% | +14% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sutton Utd vs Truro City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sutton Utd, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton Utd | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.34 | +0.00 |
| Truro City | 3.42 | 3.42 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sutton Utd and Truro City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Sutton Utd / Truro City)
- 1.10 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Sutton Utd / Truro City)
- 1.02 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sutton Utd vs Truro City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sutton Utd goals. Columns: Truro City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sutton Utd vs Truro City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sutton Utd vs Truro City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sutton Utd | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Truro City | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sutton Utd or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Truro City) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sutton Utd win by 2+ | 16% | 6.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sutton Utd and Truro City recent form
Sutton Utd
3W 1D 2L
Truro City
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Truro City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Sutton Utd at home only, Truro City away only.
Sutton Utd vs Truro City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sutton Utd 2 · draws 0 · Truro City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Sutton Utd | 0-3 | Truro City | National League |
| 2025-11-22 | Truro City | 2-3 | Sutton Utd | National League |
| 2017-12-16 | Sutton Utd | 1-0 | Truro City | FA Trophy |
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