Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Torquay vs Oxford City

· Plainmoor, Torquay

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Torquay to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TorquayDrawOxford City

Torquay vs Oxford City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTorquayDrawOxford City
Model31%22%48%
Market44%25%31%
Published41%24%35%
Edge-14%-3%+17%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Torquay vs Oxford City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Torquay, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 2.06Now 2.06 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Torquay2.062.06+0.00
Draw3.653.65+0.00
Oxford City3.003.00+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Torquay and Oxford City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Torquay
2.20Oxford City
Total expected goals
3.95
Attack rating (Torquay / Oxford City)
1.06 / 1.60
Defence rating (Torquay / Oxford City)
0.92 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Torquay vs Oxford City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 3.5% 4.6% 3.4% 3.1% 1 2.6% 8.2% 8.1% 6.0% 5.5% 2 3.0% 6.5% 7.1% 5.2% 4.8% 3 1.7% 3.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.8% 4+ 1.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.8%

Rows: Torquay goals. Columns: Oxford City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Torquay vs Oxford City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Torquay vs Oxford City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Torquay41%2.44
Draw24%4.12
Oxford City35%2.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.07
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.88
Double chance1X (Torquay or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Oxford City)59%1.69
Handicap -1Torquay win by 2+16%6.42
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Torquay and Oxford City recent form

Torquay 2W 0D 2L
Oxford City 3W 0D 2L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Torquay at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
6.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Oxford City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Torquay at home only, Oxford City away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures