Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch

· Honeycroft, Usley

Full time0 – 4

Alin prediction was AFC Hornchurch to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UxbridgeDrawAFC Hornchurch

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUxbridgeDrawAFC Hornchurch
Model62%21%17%
Market18%22%60%
Published29%22%49%
Edge+44%-1%-43%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AFC Hornchurch, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.52Now 1.52 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Uxbridge4.954.95+0.00
Draw4.184.18+0.00
AFC Hornchurch1.521.52+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Uxbridge and AFC Hornchurch expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Uxbridge
1.11AFC Hornchurch
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Uxbridge / AFC Hornchurch)
1.19 / 0.88
Defence rating (Uxbridge / AFC Hornchurch)
0.85 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 3.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.9% 9.5% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6% 2 8.8% 9.8% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 6.6% 7.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 4+ 6.3% 7.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5%

Rows: Uxbridge goals. Columns: AFC Hornchurch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Uxbridge29%3.41
Draw22%4.64
AFC Hornchurch49%2.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.89
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.56
Double chance1X (Uxbridge or draw)51%1.97
12 (either side)78%1.27
X2 (draw or AFC Hornchurch)71%1.41
Handicap -1AFC Hornchurch win by 2+6%15.43
Push (exactly one goal)10%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Uxbridge and AFC Hornchurch recent form

Uxbridge 3W 1D 2L
AFC Hornchurch 1W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Uxbridge at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3

League matches this season before kick-off: Uxbridge at home only, AFC Hornchurch away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures