Wealdstone vs Worthing: model vs market
| Source | Wealdstone | Draw | Worthing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 24% | 42% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | -2% | -2% | +4% |
- The market prices Worthing below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Wealdstone vs Worthing odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Worthing, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone | 2.43 | 2.43 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.00 |
| Worthing | 2.39 | 2.39 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wealdstone and Worthing expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Wealdstone / Worthing)
- 1.02 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Wealdstone / Worthing)
- 0.94 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wealdstone vs Worthing score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wealdstone goals. Columns: Worthing goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wealdstone vs Worthing goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wealdstone vs Worthing
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wealdstone | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Worthing | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wealdstone or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Worthing) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Worthing win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Wealdstone and Worthing recent form
Wealdstone
4W 0D 2L
Worthing
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Wealdstone vs Worthing head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Wealdstone 0 · draws 0 · Worthing 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Worthing | 1-0 | Wealdstone | National League |
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