Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City

· The Cuthbury, Wimborne

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Chelmsford City to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wimborne TownDrawChelmsford City

Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWimborne TownDrawChelmsford City
Model35%27%38%
Market24%25%50%
Published27%26%47%
Edge+10%+2%-12%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chelmsford City, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.79Now 1.79 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wimborne Town3.703.70+0.00
Draw3.583.58+0.00
Chelmsford City1.791.79+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wimborne Town and Chelmsford City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Wimborne Town
1.47Chelmsford City
Total expected goals
2.87
Attack rating (Wimborne Town / Chelmsford City)
0.99 / 1.23
Defence rating (Wimborne Town / Chelmsford City)
0.80 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 7.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.5% 1 6.8% 12.8% 8.6% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.6% 8.2% 6.0% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Wimborne Town goals. Columns: Chelmsford City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wimborne Town vs Chelmsford City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wimborne Town27%3.70
Draw26%3.88
Chelmsford City47%2.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.83
Under 2.545%2.20
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.45
Double chance1X (Wimborne Town or draw)53%1.90
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Chelmsford City)73%1.37
Handicap -1Chelmsford City win by 2+19%5.35
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wimborne Town and Chelmsford City recent form

Wimborne Town 2W 3D 1L
Chelmsford City 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wimborne Town at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Chelmsford City away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Wimborne Town at home only, Chelmsford City away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures