League Two · Matchday 9

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham

· The Crown Ground, Accrington

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Accrington ST to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Accrington STDrawCheltenham

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAccrington STDrawCheltenham
Model34%23%43%
Market40%27%32%
Published39%26%35%
Edge-7%-4%+11%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Accrington ST, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.25Now 2.30 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Accrington ST2.252.30+0.05
Draw3.443.42-0.02
Cheltenham2.882.86-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Accrington ST and Cheltenham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Accrington ST
1.98Cheltenham
Total expected goals
3.72
Attack rating (Accrington ST / Cheltenham)
0.99 / 1.30
Defence rating (Accrington ST / Cheltenham)
1.31 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.0% 4.8% 3.1% 2.5% 1 3.4% 9.2% 8.3% 5.5% 4.3% 2 3.7% 7.2% 7.2% 4.8% 3.7% 3 2.1% 4.2% 4.2% 2.8% 2.2% 4+ 1.4% 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 1.4%

Rows: Accrington ST goals. Columns: Cheltenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Accrington ST39%2.59
Draw26%3.83
Cheltenham35%2.84
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.56
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.56
Double chance1X (Accrington ST or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Cheltenham)61%1.63
Handicap -1Accrington ST win by 2+17%5.76
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Accrington ST and Cheltenham recent form

Accrington ST 1W 3D 2L
Cheltenham 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Accrington ST at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cheltenham away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Accrington ST at home only, Cheltenham away only.

Accrington ST vs Cheltenham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Accrington ST 4 · draws 3 · Cheltenham 3.

Accrington STDrawsCheltenham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31Accrington ST3-1CheltenhamLeague Two
2025-09-06Cheltenham1-0Accrington STLeague Two
2025-01-28Accrington ST0-0CheltenhamLeague Two
2024-10-01Cheltenham2-1Accrington STLeague Two
2023-02-11Cheltenham0-0Accrington STLeague One
2022-09-17Accrington ST1-0CheltenhamLeague One
2022-04-02Accrington ST4-4CheltenhamLeague One
2021-10-16Cheltenham1-0Accrington STLeague One
2018-12-01Accrington ST3-1CheltenhamFA Cup
2018-01-13Cheltenham0-2Accrington STLeague Two

Other Matchday 9 fixtures