League Two · Matchday 9

Rochdale vs Swindon Town

· Spotland, Rochdale

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Rochdale to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RochdaleDrawSwindon Town

Rochdale vs Swindon Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRochdaleDrawSwindon Town
Model54%24%22%
Market42%27%32%
Published45%26%29%
Edge+12%-2%-10%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Rochdale below the model: +12.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rochdale, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.38Now 2.25 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rochdale2.382.25-0.13
Draw3.403.50+0.10
Swindon Town2.772.94+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rochdale and Swindon Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.90Rochdale
1.15Swindon Town
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (Rochdale / Swindon Town)
1.05 / 0.90
Defence rating (Rochdale / Swindon Town)
1.10 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 4.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 1 7.9% 11.4% 6.0% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.5% 9.8% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 5.4% 6.2% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 4.0% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Rochdale goals. Columns: Swindon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rochdale vs Swindon Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rochdale45%2.24
Draw26%3.83
Swindon Town29%3.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.44
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Rochdale or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Swindon Town)55%1.80
Handicap -1Rochdale win by 2+32%3.15
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rochdale and Swindon Town recent form

Rochdale 3W 1D 2L
Swindon Town 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rochdale at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Swindon Town away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rochdale at home only, Swindon Town away only.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rochdale 2 · draws 4 · Swindon Town 4.

RochdaleDrawsSwindon Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-03-18Rochdale4-4Swindon TownLeague Two
2022-08-20Swindon Town3-0RochdaleLeague Two
2022-04-02Rochdale0-0Swindon TownLeague Two
2021-10-16Swindon Town2-2RochdaleLeague Two
2021-04-13Rochdale2-1Swindon TownLeague One
2020-09-12Swindon Town3-1RochdaleLeague One
2016-11-19Rochdale4-0Swindon TownLeague One
2016-10-18Swindon Town3-0RochdaleLeague One
2016-04-30Rochdale2-2Swindon TownLeague One
2015-12-12Swindon Town2-1RochdaleLeague One

Other Matchday 9 fixtures