League Two · Matchday 9

Chesterfield vs Tranmere

· Proact Stadium, Chesterfield

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Chesterfield to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChesterfieldDrawTranmere

Chesterfield vs Tranmere: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChesterfieldDrawTranmere
Model43%31%26%
Market56%24%21%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-13%+7%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chesterfield vs Tranmere odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.70Now 1.67 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chesterfield1.701.67-0.03
Draw3.883.96+0.08
Tranmere4.354.49+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chesterfield and Tranmere expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Chesterfield
0.98Tranmere
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Chesterfield / Tranmere)
1.01 / 0.92
Defence rating (Chesterfield / Tranmere)
0.90 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chesterfield vs Tranmere score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 8.6% 4.8% 1.6% 0.5% 1 12.0% 14.3% 6.3% 2.1% 0.6% 2 8.7% 8.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 3 3.8% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Chesterfield goals. Columns: Tranmere goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chesterfield vs Tranmere goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chesterfield vs Tranmere

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chesterfield53%1.90
Draw25%3.96
Tranmere22%4.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.49
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.13
No53%1.88
Double chance1X (Chesterfield or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Tranmere)47%2.11
Handicap -1Chesterfield win by 2+21%4.87
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chesterfield and Tranmere recent form

Chesterfield 2W 2D 2L
Tranmere 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chesterfield at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Tranmere away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Chesterfield at home only, Tranmere away only.

Chesterfield vs Tranmere head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Chesterfield 3 · draws 2 · Tranmere 4.

ChesterfieldDrawsTranmere
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Chesterfield1-1TranmereLeague Two
2025-10-25Tranmere1-1ChesterfieldLeague Two
2025-04-05Tranmere4-0ChesterfieldLeague Two
2024-12-07Chesterfield3-0TranmereLeague Two
2012-12-01Tranmere2-1ChesterfieldFA Cup
2012-08-14Chesterfield1-2TranmereLeague Cup
2012-03-03Chesterfield1-0TranmereLeague One
2011-11-09Chesterfield4-3TranmereEFL Trophy
2011-08-06Tranmere1-0ChesterfieldLeague One

Other Matchday 9 fixtures