League Two · Matchday 9

Gillingham vs Newport County

· Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Gillingham to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GillinghamDrawNewport County

Gillingham vs Newport County: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGillinghamDrawNewport County
Model41%27%32%
Market46%27%28%
Published44%27%29%
Edge-5%0%+5%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gillingham vs Newport County odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gillingham, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.20Now 2.05 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gillingham2.202.05-0.15
Draw3.443.50+0.06
Newport County2.963.39+0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gillingham and Newport County expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Gillingham
1.34Newport County
Total expected goals
2.87
Attack rating (Gillingham / Newport County)
1.03 / 1.04
Defence rating (Gillingham / Newport County)
1.10 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gillingham vs Newport County score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 6.4% 5.1% 2.3% 1.0% 1 7.5% 12.8% 7.8% 3.5% 1.6% 2 6.6% 8.9% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.4% 4.5% 3.0% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Gillingham goals. Columns: Newport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gillingham vs Newport County goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gillingham vs Newport County

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gillingham44%2.25
Draw27%3.73
Newport County29%3.48
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.83
Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.44
Double chance1X (Gillingham or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Newport County)56%1.80
Handicap -1Gillingham win by 2+21%4.84
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gillingham and Newport County recent form

Gillingham 3W 2D 1L
Newport County 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gillingham at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Newport County away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 71% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gillingham at home only, Newport County away only.

Gillingham vs Newport County head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Gillingham 2 · draws 2 · Newport County 6.

GillinghamDrawsNewport County
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Gillingham3-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2025-11-01Newport County1-1GillinghamEngland FA Cup
2025-09-20Newport County1-3GillinghamLeague Two
2025-03-04Newport County3-1GillinghamLeague Two
2024-10-22Gillingham0-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2024-02-17Newport County1-0GillinghamLeague Two
2023-10-28Gillingham0-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2023-04-29Gillingham1-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2022-11-19Newport County2-0GillinghamLeague Two
2019-08-13Gillingham2-2Newport CountyLeague Cup

Other Matchday 9 fixtures