League Two · Matchday 9

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

· Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Bristol Rovers to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CreweDrawBristol Rovers

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCreweDrawBristol Rovers
Model33%31%36%
Market31%28%41%
Published32%28%40%
Edge+2%+3%-5%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bristol Rovers, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.29Now 2.28 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Crewe2.883.00+0.12
Draw3.383.38-0.00
Bristol Rovers2.292.28-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crewe and Bristol Rovers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Crewe
1.21Bristol Rovers
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (Crewe / Bristol Rovers)
0.87 / 1.14
Defence rating (Crewe / Bristol Rovers)
0.91 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 10.2% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 1 9.6% 14.5% 7.9% 3.2% 1.3% 2 6.2% 7.5% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7% 3 2.4% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Crewe goals. Columns: Bristol Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Crewe32%3.16
Draw28%3.52
Bristol Rovers40%2.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Crewe or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Bristol Rovers)68%1.46
Handicap -1Bristol Rovers win by 2+16%6.21
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Crewe and Bristol Rovers recent form

Crewe 0W 6D 0L
Bristol Rovers 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Crewe at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Bristol Rovers away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Crewe at home only, Bristol Rovers away only.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Crewe 4 · draws 1 · Bristol Rovers 2.

CreweDrawsBristol Rovers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07Bristol Rovers2-1CreweLeague Two
2025-12-19Crewe1-1Bristol RoversLeague Two
2023-12-12Crewe2-4Bristol RoversFA Cup
2021-05-01Bristol Rovers0-1CreweLeague One
2021-01-19Crewe3-2Bristol RoversLeague One
2012-04-09Crewe3-0Bristol RoversLeague Two
2011-12-31Bristol Rovers2-5CreweLeague Two

Other Matchday 9 fixtures