League Two · Matchday 9

Exeter City vs Rotherham

· St James Park, Exeter

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Exeter City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Exeter CityDrawRotherham

Exeter City vs Rotherham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceExeter CityDrawRotherham
Model36%33%31%
Market36%28%35%
Published36%30%34%
Edge0%+5%-4%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Exeter City vs Rotherham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Exeter City, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.33Now 2.54 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Exeter City2.332.54+0.21
Draw3.233.25+0.02
Rotherham2.912.63-0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Exeter City and Rotherham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Exeter City
0.96Rotherham
Total expected goals
2.03
Attack rating (Exeter City / Rotherham)
0.64 / 1.00
Defence rating (Exeter City / Rotherham)
0.83 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Exeter City vs Rotherham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.4% 11.2% 6.1% 1.9% 0.6% 1 12.7% 14.8% 6.5% 2.1% 0.6% 2 7.5% 7.2% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 3 2.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Exeter City goals. Columns: Rotherham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Exeter City vs Rotherham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Exeter City vs Rotherham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Exeter City36%2.75
Draw30%3.38
Rotherham34%2.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.00
Under 2.567%1.50
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.38
No58%1.73
Double chance1X (Exeter City or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Rotherham)64%1.57
Handicap -1Exeter City win by 2+15%6.67
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Exeter City and Rotherham recent form

Exeter City 0W 3D 3L
Rotherham 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Exeter City at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.

Rotherham away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Exeter City at home only, Rotherham away only.

Exeter City vs Rotherham head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Exeter City 1 · draws 1 · Rotherham 4.

Exeter CityDrawsRotherham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31Exeter City0-4RotherhamLeague One
2025-09-06Rotherham1-0Exeter CityLeague One
2025-03-15Rotherham1-1Exeter CityLeague One
2024-08-10Exeter City1-0RotherhamLeague One
2013-04-09Rotherham4-1Exeter CityLeague Two
2012-11-24Exeter City0-1RotherhamLeague Two

Other Matchday 9 fixtures