Bristol Rovers vs Barnet: model vs market
| Source | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Edge | -13% | -4% | +17% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bristol Rovers vs Barnet odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bristol Rovers, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers | 2.17 | 2.13 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.50 | -0.10 |
| Barnet | 2.92 | 3.00 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bristol Rovers and Barnet expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Bristol Rovers / Barnet)
- 1.11 / 1.73
- Defence rating (Bristol Rovers / Barnet)
- 1.08 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bristol Rovers vs Barnet score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bristol Rovers goals. Columns: Barnet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bristol Rovers vs Barnet goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bristol Rovers vs Barnet
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Barnet | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bristol Rovers or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Barnet) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win by 2+ | 15% | 6.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bristol Rovers and Barnet recent form
Bristol Rovers
3W 0D 3L
Barnet
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bristol Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Barnet away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol Rovers at home only, Barnet away only.
Bristol Rovers vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bristol Rovers 0 · draws 0 · Barnet 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Bristol Rovers | 0-2 | Barnet | League Two |
| 2025-12-09 | Barnet | 4-0 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rotherham v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-10
- Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 2026-10-10
- Port Vale v Grimsby — match page 2026-10-10
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
- Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
- Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Tranmere vs Rochdale 2026-10-10