Cheltenham vs Salford City: model vs market
| Source | Cheltenham | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Published | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Edge | +6% | +1% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cheltenham vs Salford City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Salford City, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 3.58 | 3.79 | +0.21 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.74 | +0.04 |
| Salford City | 1.88 | 1.81 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cheltenham and Salford City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Cheltenham / Salford City)
- 1.13 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Cheltenham / Salford City)
- 1.30 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cheltenham vs Salford City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cheltenham goals. Columns: Salford City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cheltenham vs Salford City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cheltenham vs Salford City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 26% | 3.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Salford City | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cheltenham or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Salford City) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win by 2+ | 24% | 4.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cheltenham and Salford City recent form
Cheltenham
3W 2D 1L
Salford City
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cheltenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Salford City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cheltenham at home only, Salford City away only.
Cheltenham vs Salford City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cheltenham 1 · draws 1 · Salford City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Cheltenham | 3-2 | Salford City | League Two |
| 2025-08-29 | Salford City | 1-1 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2024-11-30 | Salford City | 2-0 | Cheltenham | England FA Cup |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Port Vale v Grimsby — match page 2026-10-10
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
- Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
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