Port Vale vs Grimsby: model vs market
| Source | Port Vale | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 30% | 49% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | -18% | +2% | +15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Grimsby below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Port Vale vs Grimsby odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Grimsby, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 2.42 | 2.45 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.30 | -0.02 |
| Grimsby | 2.71 | 2.71 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Port Vale and Grimsby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Port Vale / Grimsby)
- 0.55 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Port Vale / Grimsby)
- 1.03 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Port Vale vs Grimsby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Port Vale goals. Columns: Grimsby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Port Vale vs Grimsby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Port Vale vs Grimsby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 33% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Grimsby | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Port Vale or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Grimsby) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win by 2+ | 25% | 4.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Port Vale and Grimsby recent form
Port Vale
1W 2D 3L
Grimsby
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Port Vale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grimsby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Port Vale at home only, Grimsby away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rotherham v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-10
- Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 2026-10-10
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
- Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
- Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Tranmere vs Rochdale 2026-10-10