Shrewsbury vs Exeter City: model vs market
| Source | Shrewsbury | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 36% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | -8% | +7% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shrewsbury, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.24 | -0.06 |
| Exeter City | 3.04 | 3.00 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Shrewsbury and Exeter City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.79
- Attack rating (Shrewsbury / Exeter City)
- 0.85 / 0.68
- Defence rating (Shrewsbury / Exeter City)
- 1.13 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shrewsbury goals. Columns: Exeter City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Exeter City | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.76 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shrewsbury or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Exeter City) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shrewsbury win by 2+ | 12% | 8.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shrewsbury and Exeter City recent form
Shrewsbury
2W 2D 2L
Exeter City
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shrewsbury at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Exeter City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shrewsbury at home only, Exeter City away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 2026-10-10
- Port Vale v Grimsby — match page 2026-10-10
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
- Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
- Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Tranmere vs Rochdale 2026-10-10