Rotherham vs Gillingham: model vs market
| Source | Rotherham | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | -13% | +3% | +11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rotherham vs Gillingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rotherham, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 1.85 | 1.84 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.45 | -0.05 |
| Gillingham | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rotherham and Gillingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Rotherham / Gillingham)
- 0.91 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Rotherham / Gillingham)
- 1.13 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rotherham vs Gillingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rotherham goals. Columns: Gillingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rotherham vs Gillingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rotherham vs Gillingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Gillingham | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rotherham or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Gillingham) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rotherham win by 2+ | 17% | 5.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rotherham and Gillingham recent form
Rotherham
1W 3D 2L
Gillingham
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rotherham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Gillingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rotherham at home only, Gillingham away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 2026-10-10
- Port Vale v Grimsby — match page 2026-10-10
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
- Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
- Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Tranmere vs Rochdale 2026-10-10