Tranmere vs Rochdale: model vs market
| Source | Tranmere | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | -10% | +1% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tranmere vs Rochdale odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tranmere, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere | 2.00 | 1.98 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.45 | -0.05 |
| Rochdale | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tranmere and Rochdale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Tranmere / Rochdale)
- 1.00 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Tranmere / Rochdale)
- 1.14 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tranmere vs Rochdale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tranmere goals. Columns: Rochdale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tranmere vs Rochdale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tranmere vs Rochdale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Rochdale | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tranmere or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Rochdale) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win by 2+ | 18% | 5.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tranmere and Rochdale recent form
Tranmere
1W 3D 2L
Rochdale
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tranmere at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rochdale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tranmere at home only, Rochdale away only.
Tranmere vs Rochdale head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Tranmere 0 · draws 1 · Rochdale 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Tranmere | 2-2 | Rochdale | League Cup |
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