Fleetwood Town vs Walsall: model vs market
| Source | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | -8% | +7% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fleetwood Town vs Walsall odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fleetwood Town, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 2.10 | 2.15 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.38 | -0.08 |
| Walsall | 3.30 | 3.08 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fleetwood Town and Walsall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.91
- Attack rating (Fleetwood Town / Walsall)
- 0.92 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Fleetwood Town / Walsall)
- 0.87 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fleetwood Town vs Walsall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fleetwood Town goals. Columns: Walsall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fleetwood Town vs Walsall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Walsall | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.56 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fleetwood Town or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Walsall) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win by 2+ | 13% | 7.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fleetwood Town and Walsall recent form
Fleetwood Town
2W 1D 3L
Walsall
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fleetwood Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Walsall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fleetwood Town at home only, Walsall away only.
Fleetwood Town vs Walsall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fleetwood Town 1 · draws 1 · Walsall 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Walsall | 0-1 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| 2025-09-13 | Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | Walsall | League Two |
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