Crawley Town vs Chesterfield: model vs market
| Source | Crawley Town | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 54% |
| Published | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Edge | 0% | +3% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 3.98 | 4.20 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.95 | -0.01 |
| Chesterfield | 1.74 | 1.70 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crawley Town and Chesterfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Crawley Town / Chesterfield)
- 0.77 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Crawley Town / Chesterfield)
- 1.22 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crawley Town goals. Columns: Chesterfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crawley Town | 22% | 4.52 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Chesterfield | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crawley Town or draw) | 46% | 2.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Chesterfield) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Crawley Town and Chesterfield recent form
Crawley Town
1W 1D 4L
Chesterfield
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crawley Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Chesterfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crawley Town at home only, Chesterfield away only.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Crawley Town 0 · draws 2 · Chesterfield 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Crawley Town | 1-1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2025-08-30 | Chesterfield | 2-2 | Crawley Town | League Two |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
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