Newport County vs Colchester: model vs market
| Source | Newport County | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | +7% | +2% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.10.
- The market prices Newport County below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Newport County vs Colchester odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newport County, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 2.63 | 2.55 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.44 | -0.06 |
| Colchester | 2.49 | 2.45 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newport County and Colchester expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Newport County / Colchester)
- 0.96 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Newport County / Colchester)
- 0.95 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newport County vs Colchester score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newport County goals. Columns: Colchester goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newport County vs Colchester goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newport County vs Colchester
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Colchester | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newport County or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Colchester) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win by 2+ | 21% | 4.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Newport County and Colchester recent form
Newport County
1W 3D 2L
Colchester
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newport County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 71% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newport County at home only, Colchester away only.
Newport County vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Newport County 0 · draws 0 · Colchester 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Newport County | 1-2 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2025-12-20 | Colchester | 4-1 | Newport County | League Two |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 2026-10-10
- Port Vale v Grimsby — match page 2026-10-10
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
- Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Tranmere vs Rochdale 2026-10-10