League Two · Matchday 9

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury

· Blundell Park, Grimsby

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Grimsby to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GrimsbyDrawShrewsbury

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGrimsbyDrawShrewsbury
Model63%23%14%
Market56%24%20%
Published58%24%18%
Edge+7%-2%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices Grimsby below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Grimsby, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.64Now 1.67 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Grimsby1.641.67+0.03
Draw3.903.85-0.04
Shrewsbury4.724.70-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Grimsby and Shrewsbury expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01Grimsby
0.85Shrewsbury
Total expected goals
2.87
Attack rating (Grimsby / Shrewsbury)
1.22 / 0.77
Defence rating (Grimsby / Shrewsbury)
0.95 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 3.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1 10.5% 10.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.5% 9.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3 7.7% 6.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 6.2% 5.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Grimsby goals. Columns: Shrewsbury goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Grimsby vs Shrewsbury

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Grimsby58%1.73
Draw24%4.20
Shrewsbury18%5.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.83
Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Grimsby or draw)82%1.23
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Shrewsbury)42%2.37
Handicap -1Grimsby win by 2+40%2.51
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Grimsby and Shrewsbury recent form

Grimsby 2W 3D 1L
Shrewsbury 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Grimsby at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Shrewsbury away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.25
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Grimsby at home only, Shrewsbury away only.

Grimsby vs Shrewsbury head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Grimsby 2 · draws 2 · Shrewsbury 1.

GrimsbyDrawsShrewsbury
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-29Grimsby1-0ShrewsburyLeague Two
2025-12-09Shrewsbury1-1GrimsbyLeague Two
2025-08-12Grimsby3-1ShrewsburyLeague Cup
2015-12-15Shrewsbury1-0GrimsbyFA Cup
2015-12-07Grimsby0-0ShrewsburyFA Cup

Other Matchday 9 fixtures