Oldham vs Accrington ST preview
In the League Two fixture between Oldham and Accrington ST, the model suggests a 1X2 probability of 52% for Oldham to win, compared to 24% for a draw and 24% for Accrington ST. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. The market indicates a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score.
Oldham's recent form shows four losses in their last five matches, while Accrington ST has two wins and three draws in the same period. Oldham has won once and lost twice in their last three head-to-head encounters. The confidence grade is C, meaning there is some uncertainty in the predictions, which could be influenced by Oldham's struggling form.
Oldham vs Accrington ST: model vs market
| Source | Oldham | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | -25% | +3% | +22% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Oldham vs Accrington ST odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oldham, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 1.60 | 1.57 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Accrington ST | 5.00 | 5.10 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Oldham and Accrington ST expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Oldham / Accrington ST)
- 0.89 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Oldham / Accrington ST)
- 1.31 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oldham vs Accrington ST score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oldham goals. Columns: Accrington ST goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oldham vs Accrington ST goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oldham vs Accrington ST
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Accrington ST | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oldham or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Accrington ST) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oldham win by 2+ | 16% | 6.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oldham and Accrington ST recent form
Oldham
1W 1D 4L
Accrington ST
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oldham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Accrington ST away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oldham at home only, Accrington ST away only.
Oldham vs Accrington ST head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Oldham 1 · draws 0 · Accrington ST 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Oldham | 3-0 | Accrington ST | League Two |
| 2025-11-29 | Accrington ST | 1-0 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2025-08-05 | Accrington ST | 3-1 | Oldham | League Cup |
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