Swindon Town vs Crewe preview
Swindon Town hosts Crewe in League Two with the model showing a 38% chance for a Crewe win compared to 34% for Swindon Town. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.06 for Swindon Town and 1.49 for Crewe.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 47%. Swindon Town's recent form includes two wins and three losses, while Crewe has six games without a loss, including five draws. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions due to blended probabilities and market odds.
Swindon Town vs Crewe: model vs market
| Source | Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | -12% | +1% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Crewe below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Swindon Town vs Crewe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Crewe, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 2.54 | 2.46 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.40 | -0.02 |
| Crewe | 2.58 | 2.59 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Swindon Town and Crewe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Swindon Town / Crewe)
- 0.82 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Swindon Town / Crewe)
- 1.25 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swindon Town vs Crewe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swindon Town goals. Columns: Crewe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swindon Town vs Crewe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swindon Town vs Crewe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 34% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Crewe | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swindon Town or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Crewe) | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Swindon Town and Crewe recent form
Swindon Town
2W 1D 3L
Crewe
1W 5D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swindon Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Crewe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Swindon Town at home only, Crewe away only.
Swindon Town vs Crewe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Swindon Town 1 · draws 0 · Crewe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Swindon Town | 1-2 | Crewe | League Two |
| 2025-08-30 | Crewe | 0-3 | Swindon Town | League Two |
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