League Two · Matchday 9

Salford City vs Fleetwood Town

· Moor Lane, Salford

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Salford City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Salford CityDrawFleetwood Town

Salford City vs Fleetwood Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSalford CityDrawFleetwood Town
Model42%29%29%
Market57%23%19%
Published54%25%22%
Edge-15%+5%+10%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Salford City vs Fleetwood Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Salford City, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.81Now 1.62 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Salford City1.811.62-0.19
Draw3.704.00+0.30
Fleetwood Town3.834.80+0.97

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Salford City and Fleetwood Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Salford City
1.14Fleetwood Town
Total expected goals
2.57
Attack rating (Salford City / Fleetwood Town)
1.17 / 1.03
Defence rating (Salford City / Fleetwood Town)
0.94 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Salford City vs Fleetwood Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 7.5% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 1 9.7% 13.7% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.8% 8.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.7% 4.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Salford City goals. Columns: Fleetwood Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Salford City vs Fleetwood Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Salford City vs Fleetwood Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Salford City54%1.86
Draw25%4.06
Fleetwood Town22%4.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.11
Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.88
No47%2.13
Double chance1X (Salford City or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Fleetwood Town)46%2.16
Handicap -1Salford City win by 2+21%4.75
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Salford City and Fleetwood Town recent form

Salford City 4W 1D 1L
Fleetwood Town 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Salford City at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Fleetwood Town away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Salford City at home only, Fleetwood Town away only.

Salford City vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Salford City 0 · draws 3 · Fleetwood Town 1.

Salford CityDrawsFleetwood Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-29Salford City0-0Fleetwood TownLeague Two
2025-12-09Fleetwood Town1-1Salford CityLeague Two
2025-01-18Salford City0-2Fleetwood TownLeague Two
2024-10-29Fleetwood Town2-2Salford CityLeague Two

Other Matchday 9 fixtures