York vs Northampton Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

York vs Northampton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	York	Draw	Northampton
Model	68%	21%	10%
Market	56%	24%	20%
Published	59%	24%	18%
Edge	+13%	-3%	-10%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.68.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices York below the model: +12.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

York vs Northampton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on York, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.68Now 1.65 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
York	1.68	1.65	-0.03
Draw	3.80	3.75	-0.05
Northampton	4.60	4.60	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

York and Northampton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05York

0.68Northampton

Total expected goals: 2.73
Attack rating (York / Northampton): 1.36 / 0.56
Defence rating (York / Northampton): 1.05 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

York vs Northampton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1 12.4% 10.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.6% 9.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 3 9.3% 6.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 7.7% 5.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: York goals. Columns: Northampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

York vs Northampton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for York vs Northampton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	York	59%	1.70
	Draw	24%	4.23
	Northampton	18%	5.69
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.94
	Under 2.5	49%	2.06
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.27
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (York or draw)	82%	1.21
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Northampton)	41%	2.43
Handicap -1	York win by 2+	44%	2.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

York and Northampton recent form

York 3W 1D 2L

Northampton 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

York at home

Record (W-D-L): 4-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 3.00
Goals against / match: 0.75
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Northampton away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: York at home only, Northampton away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Rotherham v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-10
Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Fleetwood Town vs Walsall 2026-10-10
Port Vale v Grimsby — match page 2026-10-10
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2026-10-10
Newport County v Colchester — match page 2026-10-10
Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats 2026-10-10

Prediction snapshot York to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on York