Nantes vs Clermont Foot preview
Nantes faces Clermont Foot with a 38% chance of winning compared to Clermont's 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 9% of the time according to our model. Nantes has an expected goals figure of 1.33, while Clermont Foot sits at 1.23.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a decent likelihood for goals from both sides. However, recent form shows Nantes with two wins in their last six matches, while Clermont Foot has not won in their last six. This could affect the outcome, especially if Nantes fails to convert their chances or if Clermont finds a way to break their scoring drought.
Why this pick: Nantes vs Clermont Foot
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nantes 10, Clermont Foot 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nantes vs Clermont Foot: model vs market
| Source | Nantes | Draw | Clermont Foot |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Published | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nantes and Clermont Foot expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.41
- Attack rating (Nantes / Clermont Foot)
- 0.83 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Nantes / Clermont Foot)
- 1.12 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nantes vs Clermont Foot score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nantes goals. Columns: Clermont Foot goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nantes vs Clermont Foot goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nantes vs Clermont Foot
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nantes | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Clermont Foot | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nantes or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Clermont Foot) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nantes win by 2+ | 16% | 6.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Nantes and Clermont Foot recent form
Nantes
2W 1D 3L
Clermont Foot
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nantes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Clermont Foot away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nantes at home only, Clermont Foot away only.
Nantes vs Clermont Foot head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Nantes 1 · draws 0 · Clermont Foot 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-14 | Nantes | 1-2 | Clermont Foot | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Clermont Foot | 0-1 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Grenoble vs Dijon 2026-10-30
- Metz vs PAU — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Laval vs Boulogne 2026-10-30
- Rodez v Dunkerque — match page 2026-10-30
- Reims vs Sochaux — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Annecy vs Montpellier — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Guingamp v Saint-Etienne — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Nantes, previous: Saint-Etienne – Nantes, 2026-10-24
- Clermont Foot, previous: Clermont Foot v Guingamp analysis